Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $464,596$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-2.13 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{504,677.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(504,677.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,567$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-1.07 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,398.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 166.4)}}\) (asimptote \(35,398.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,765$ on 2020-10-02

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $372,259$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{468,904.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 176.7)}}\) (asimptote \(468,904.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,298$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,359.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 147.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,359.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $63,157$ on 2020-10-02

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $258,920$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.06 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,633$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $72,165$ on 2020-10-02

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $98,585$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-2.03 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,245.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 126.6)}}\) (asimptote \(92,245.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $935$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(41.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,027.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,027.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,122$ on 2020-10-02

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,056$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,856.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 121.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,856.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,065$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(120 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,198.8}{1 + 10^{-0.621 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,198.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,854$ on 2020-10-02

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $71,803$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.55 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,028.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 151.1)}}\) (asimptote \(74,028.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $255$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 126.9)}}\) (asimptote \(239.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,364$ on 2020-10-02

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,087$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-1.04 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,879.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 138.9)}}\) (asimptote \(106,879.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $615$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(4 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{568.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 77.3)}}\) (asimptote \(568.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,574$ on 2020-10-02

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335,578$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{331,866.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(331,866.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,823$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(397 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,863.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 115.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,863.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,407$ on 2020-10-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Qatar recovered 92%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Sri Lanka recovered 86%
Saudi Arabia recovered 83%
Azerbaijan recovered 81%
Yemen recovered 75%
Uzbekistan recovered 68%
Maldives recovered 58%
Kuwait recovered 52%
United Arab Emirates recovered 42%
Tajikistan recovered 41%
Bangladesh recovered 29%
Bahrain recovered 23%

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $126,164$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(8.81 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,020.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(119,020.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $215$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-8.37 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{208.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 91.6)}}\) (asimptote \(208.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,841$ on 2020-10-02

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,106$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,658.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,658.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,725$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.12 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,738.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,738.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,271$ on 2020-10-02

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,388$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(670 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,250.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 85.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,250.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-1.21 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 10.1)}}\) (asimptote \(12.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $130$ on 2020-10-02

Azerbaijan⮸

Population $10,139,177$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,453$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,262.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 117.1)}}\) (asimptote \(39,262.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $594$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.66 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{585.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 108.1)}}\) (asimptote \(585.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,642$ on 2020-10-02