Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $464,596$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(-2.13 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{504,677.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(504,677.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,567$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(-1.07 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,398.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 166.4)}}\) (asimptote \(35,398.7\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,765$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $372,259$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{468,904.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 176.7)}}\) (asimptote \(468,904.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,298$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,359.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 147.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,359.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $63,157$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $258,920$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.06 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,633$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $72,165$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $98,585$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(-2.03 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,245.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 126.6)}}\) (asimptote \(92,245.0\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $935$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(41.3 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,027.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,027.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,122$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,056$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,856.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 121.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,856.0\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,065$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(120 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,198.8}{1 + 10^{-0.621 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,198.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,854$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $71,803$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.55 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,028.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 151.1)}}\) (asimptote \(74,028.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $255$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 126.9)}}\) (asimptote \(239.8\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,364$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $106,087$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(-1.04 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,879.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 138.9)}}\) (asimptote \(106,879.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $615$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(4 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{568.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 77.3)}}\) (asimptote \(568.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,574$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $335,578$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{331,866.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(331,866.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,823$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(397 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,863.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 115.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,863.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,407$ on 2020-10-02